Disconnect between stock market and economy, OECD warns

Reuters

Reuters

Moreover, "financial vulnerabilities and policy risks could derail the modest [global economic] recovery", writes the OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann.

OECD chief economist Catherine Mann said: "The pick-up in growth from countries taking fiscal initiatives is broadly welcome, but we can not ignore the danger that the recovery gets knocked off track by policy errors or financial risks and vulnerabilities". But looking out to 2018, the OECD expects Canada's economy will grow 2.2 per cent, a small decrease from the November outlook of 2.3 per cent.

In its interim economic outlook, published today, the think-tank said it expected growth to rise to 3.6% next year, up from 3.3% forecast for 2017.

Though Washington was not alone in using nationalistic rhetoric, Mann said the OECD had estimated that a 10 per cent increase in United States import costs would percolate through the economy and ultimately lift export costs by 15 per cent.

The modest pick-up in global growth in 2017-18 reflects the effect of ongoing and projected fiscal initiatives, notably in China and the United States, and initiatives in other economies such as Canada, the report says.

"Falling trust in national governments and lower confidence by voters in the political systems of many countries can make it more hard for governments to pursue and sustain the policy agenda required to achieve strong and inclusive growth", the OECD said.

Arun Jaitley says Arvind Kejriwal's defamatory statements a deflecting tactic
Jaitley's cross-examination by Jethmalani, who is representing Kejriwal, remained inconclusive and will continue on May 15 and 17. Jethmalani then also questioned Jaitley on whether the prime minister knew that he was going to sue the Delhi chief minister.

"Now, more than ever, governments need to take actions that restore people's confidence while at the same time resisting turning inwards or rolling back numerous advances that have been achieved through greater worldwide co-operation", OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría said, commenting on the report.

China's growth forecast for this year was raised to 6.5 percent and for next year to 6.3 percent.

"Efforts are needed to strengthen domestic policies that support trade openness, maximize the gains from trade and ensure that the benefits are fairly shared, with obstacles to the process of reallocation and transition for workers reduced", the OECD said.

Next year, the USA economy is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent and Canada's is expected to expand by 2.2 per cent, ahead of the other G7 countries. GDP for the area as a whole is expected to expand at an annual rate of 1.6% in both 2017 and 2018. "The positive assessment reflected in market valuations appears disconnected from real economy prospects", the OECD said. And growth in consumption and investment is still lagging.

Higher commodity prices and easing inflation are supporting a recovery from deep recessions in Brazil and Russian Federation.

This year's 0.4 percentage point upgrade was larger than for any... Focussing on policies that build structural elements into fiscal initiatives would reduce the burden on monetary policy in the advanced economies and help to boost trade, investment, productivity and wages.

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